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| Gyun Heo | Some Regions See an Increase in the Number of Schools Despite Declining School-Age Populations | |||
| 작성자 | 대외홍보센터 | 작성일 | 2026-10-21 |
| 조회수 | 16 | ||
| Gyun Heo | Some Regions See an Increase in the Number of Schools Despite Declining School-Age Populations | |||||
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대외홍보센터 |  |
2026-10-21 |  |
16 |
Some Regions See an Increase in the Number of Schools Despite Declining School-Age Populations
- Pukyong National University research team analyzes changes in school-age populations and school numbers across 228 local governments nationwide over a 10-year period
- School-age populations declined in 89.47% of regions, while the number of schools increased in 46.05% … Findings published in an SSCI-indexed international journal
A recent study has found that although school-age populations are declining nationwide, the number of schools does not necessarily change in the same direction, with significant regional disparities.
In particular, the number of schools has actually increased in many regions experiencing declining school-age populations, suggesting that the allocation of educational resources in an era of low birth rates is not determined solely by changes in student numbers.
A research team comprising Xinyuan Zhang, a doctoral student in the Department of Educational Consulting at Pukyong National University’s Graduate School, Shishang Yang of Yuncheng Vocational and Technical University in China, and Professor Gyun Heo of the Department of Fisheries and Marine Industries Education at Pukyong National University analyzed the spatial relationship between changes in school-age populations and adjustments in the number of schools in South Korea, as well as evolving patterns of educational resource allocation, in their paper titled “Spatial mismatch and logical transition of basic education resource allocation in South Korea.”
The paper was published in the October 2026 issue (Volume 126) of International Journal of Educational Development, an international journal indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Using long-term data and spatial analysis at the local government level nationwide, the study examined the relationship between declining school-age populations due to low birth rates and changes in the number of schools.
The research team analyzed changes in the school-age population, defined as those aged 5 to 19, and the number of schools across 228 local governments in South Korea from 2014 to 2024. Using data from Statistics Korea and regional statistical sources, the researchers examined long-term trends and applied regression analysis and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial statistical analysis to investigate regional relationships between changes in school-age populations and the allocation of educational resources.
The findings revealed that school-age populations declined in 89.47% of local government areas nationwide, while changes in the number of schools varied considerably by region. Notably, 105 of the 228 regions (46.05%) experienced an increase in the number of schools despite declining school-age populations. These findings suggest that school distribution in an era of low birth rates is influenced not simply by changes in student numbers, but also by various factors, including new town development, the establishment of industrial zones, population migration, and regional development policies.
The study also found that 99 regions (43.42%) experienced declines in both school-age populations and the number of schools, while 23 regions (10.09%) recorded increases in both. Only one region saw a decrease in the number of schools despite an increase in its school-age population.
Spatial analysis revealed that declines in school-age populations were concentrated in parts of central Seoul and the surrounding areas of the Seoul metropolitan region, while relatively strong population growth was observed in the outer metropolitan areas, including southern Gyeonggi Province, and in certain industrial cities. The number of schools also showed distinct spatial patterns, with increases concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area and around major metropolitan cities, while clusters of declining school numbers appeared in eastern and certain non-metropolitan regions. These findings highlighted a spatial disparity characterized by a “West-Strong, East-Weak” pattern.
In particular, the research team found that regions attracting young people and families through new town development or the relocation of industrial facilities tend to establish schools proactively in anticipation of future demand. In contrast, in regions experiencing sustained population decline, school mergers and closures, along with reductions in educational facilities, could weaken local communities and potentially accelerate further population outflows.
Professor Gyun Heo said, “The significance of this study lies in its empirical demonstration, based on 10 years of data from 228 local governments nationwide, that changes in school-age populations and adjustments in the number of schools do not necessarily follow the same patterns across regions. In particular, the findings highlight the need for educational resource allocation policies in an era of low birth rates to comprehensively consider not only student numbers but also population migration, regional development, industrial structures, and the role of schools within local communities.”
Xinyuan Zhang has been dedicated to research since coming to Pukyong National University from China through the Global PKNU Graduate Degree Program for Faculty and Staff of Overseas Universities. With support from the 2025 PhiNX Graduate Research Encouragement Scholarship Program for the Protection of Academic Disciplines and the GPKNU Research Promotion Scholarship, Zhang has published papers as first author in KCI-indexed journals, including Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education. To date, Zhang has produced two KCI-indexed papers and one SSCI-indexed paper. As the first author of the present study, Zhang took a leading role in research conceptualization, methodology design, data analysis, visualization, and manuscript preparation.
Shishang Yang is a researcher at the College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Yuncheng Vocational and Technical University, China, and earned a doctoral degree from the Department of Architecture at Pukyong National University. Yang participated in this study as the corresponding author. Through an interdisciplinary approach combining education, architecture, and spatial analysis, the research team examined the spatial relationship between changes in school-age populations due to low birth rates and the distribution of school facilities.
Professor Gyun Heo, who participated as a co-researcher, has conducted research in educational technology, AI-based education, big data analysis, and advanced quantitative research methodologies. He has also mentored graduate students and early-career researchers in publishing papers in domestic and international academic journals. This achievement is regarded as a notable example of interdisciplinary research that combines the educational expertise developed by Pukyong National University’s undergraduate Department of Fisheries and Marine Industries Education (Department Chair Tae-Ho Lee) and its graduate Department of Educational Consulting and Department of Fisheries and Marine Human Resources Development with research expertise from diverse disciplines, including architecture. By integrating these fields, the study sheds light on the social challenges of low birth rates and regional depopulation from the perspectives of educational resource allocation and spatial analysis. <Pukyong Today>
