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대학/대학원
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연구/산학
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대학생활
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입학/취업
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커뮤니티
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대학소개
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개교 80주년
연구/산학
PKNU Research 1000
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| Kyung-Ho Kim·In-Cheol Lee | Warn East Sea Squid Catches Could Fall to Zero by 2040 | |||
| 작성자 | 대외홍보센터 | 작성일 | 2026-11-03 |
| 조회수 | 10 | ||
| Kyung-Ho Kim·In-Cheol Lee | Warn East Sea Squid Catches Could Fall to Zero by 2040 | |||||
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대외홍보센터 |  |
2026-11-03 |  |
10 |
Pukyong National University Researchers Warn East Sea Squid Catches Could Fall to Zero by 2040
- Study identifies links between climate change, La Nina, marine heatwaves, and predator influxes
- Research team led by Professors Kyung-Ho Kim and In-Cheol Lee of the Department of Ocean Engineering publishes findings in a Nature-affiliated journal
“Potentially Irreversible Ecosystem Restructuring, Not a Temporary Fluctuation in Fishery Resources … Urgent Need for Joint Management by South Korea, Japan, and Other Neighboring Countries”
A research team led by Professors Kyung-Ho Kim and In-Cheol Lee of the Department of Ocean Engineering at Pukyong National University (President Sang-Hoon Bae) has identified the effects of climate change and marine heatwaves on the sharp decline in squid catches in the East Sea. Their findings were published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister journal of the internationally renowned scientific journal Nature.
The study involved Senior Researcher Seong-Sik Park of Pukyong National University’s Research Institute for Ocean Industry, who served as the first author, and Research Scientist Seok-Jin Yoon of the National Institute of Fisheries Science, among other researchers. By analyzing approximately 30 years of observational data from 1993 to 2025, the research team identified a teleconnection pathway through which intensified La Nina conditions in early summer (June-July) strengthen marine heatwaves in major East Sea fishing grounds during autumn and winter through atmospheric-oceanic interactions.
The analysis revealed that in years marked by strong La Ni-a events (1999, 2010, 2021, 2022, and 2025), sea surface temperature anomalies in major East Sea fishing grounds averaged 0.9°C during autumn and winter. When La Nina alters atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific and strengthens easterly winds over the East China Sea, sea levels rise along South Korea’s southern coast, increasing heat transport through the Korea Strait via the Tsushima Warm Current. The researchers found that this process leads to higher water temperatures in East Sea fishing grounds.
Using statistical sequential mediation analysis, the research team confirmed that multiple environmental factors contributed to the sharp decline in catches of Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus). According to the researchers, long-term ocean warming has gradually degraded squid habitats, while rapid, short-term temperature increases caused by marine heatwaves have placed additional thermal stress on squid populations. At the same time, the influx of predators adapted to warmer waters has further intensified predation pressure.
Climate model projections also raise serious concerns. The research team predicted that if global warming continues, squid catches in the East Sea could decline to nearly zero by 2040 under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
The researchers explained that their findings suggest the decline in squid populations cannot be attributed solely to temporary fluctuations, pointing instead to the possibility of irreversible structural changes in marine ecosystems caused by climate change. They also emphasized the urgent need for South Korea, Japan, and other neighboring countries to proactively establish a joint management framework to address climate change, as fishery resources such as squid migrate across national maritime boundaries.
The study also demonstrated the potential to predict the occurrence of marine heatwaves in autumn and winter using early-summer La Nina indices. The research team expects these findings to contribute to proactive fisheries management and the development of policies for sustainable fishery resource management.
